Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Simulation of Arabian Sea Cyclone - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 345

It is noticed from the results that all the experiments are able to simulate
cyclone well except same SST experiment. This suggests that the model is not
capable to simulate the cyclonic storm when the SST is constant i.e. no gradient
is present, despite all the other conditions being same with the other experiments.
The intensity of the cyclone is overestimated and the error in track prediction
is higher in Control experiment than other experiments. The simulated intensity
and track is closer in SSHA2SST experiment as compared to JTWC observation.
In the projected future, the intensity of the tropical cyclone may rise 10%
to 50% from the current intensity. However, the rise in intensity will be
maximum by about 50% the peak intense stage of the cyclone in the future
when compared with current tropical intensity.
Acknowledgement
The authors duly acknowledge the NCEP and NCAR for providing their
reanalysis datasets the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, CO, USA, from their
web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ and the model used in the present
study. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is duly
acknowledged for providing sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) data through
the web site www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod/work/ trinanes/INTERFACE/
index.html. Authors are thankful to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
for providing the observed track and intensity data of the tropical cyclone
considered for the present study. The Indian National Centre for Ocean
Information Services (INCOIS), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India is
gratefully acknowledged for providing financial support to carry out the work.
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