Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Simulation of Arabian Sea Cyclone - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 332

Role of Sea Surface Temperature in
Simulation of Arabian Sea Cyclone
P. Sinha*, U.C. Mohanty and M.M. Ali 1
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, New Delhi, India
1 National Remote Sensing Centre, India
*e-mail: [e-mail]
1. Introduction
It is well established for a long time in literature about the relationship between
ocean temperature and tropical cyclone (TC) activities (frequency and intensity).
A number of studies confirm that warm local sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
( 26°C) are one of the necessary conditions for the formation and intensification
of TCs (Palmen, 1948; Gray, 1968, 1979; Emanuel, 1987). Several theoretical
and observational studies have been carried out during the last few decades to
examine the impact of global warming on the frequency of occurrence and
intensification of the TCs worldwide (Emanuel, 1987, 2000; Henderson-Sellers
et al., 1998; Levitus et al., 2000; Webster et al., 2005; Ryan et al., 2007; Mohanty
et al., 2012; Kishtawal et al., 2012). Past studies suggested that the frequency
of occurrence of TCs does not show any notable changes in trends during the
warming scenario (Emanuel, 2005); however significant changes in
intensification of the TCs are observed over all basins of the world (Emanuel,
2005; Webster et al., 2005). The TC is one of the most devastating phenomena
among all the natural hazards worldwide in terms of loss of lives and potential
damages of properties. It is well recognized that the variation in the TC activity
have large impact to the society especially over the dense population areas.
Although the occurrence of TCs over Indian Seas (Arabian Sea and Bay of
Bengal) is about 7% of the world's total and the intensity of these cyclones are
moderate as compared to typhoons/hurricanes , the Indian Seas cyclone is one
of the deadliest phenomena as compared to other basins (Mohanty, 1994;
Mandal et al., 2007; Mohanty et al., 2012).
It is also a known fact that the SST is the resultant of the upper ocean heat
content and plays as the driving force in the formation and intensification of