Simulation of Pre-monsoon Cyclones of Two Contrasting Monsoon Years Using Mesoscale Model WRF (ARW) - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 330

Fig. 13: Track of the Laila cyclone with 27 and 9 km horizontal resolution.
4. Summary and Conclusions
Two pre-monsoon cyclones of successive years 2009 and 2010 were simulated
using the widely used WRF meso scale model. The initial and boundary
conditions have been taken from NOAA NOMADS GFS data with 10 × 10
horizontal resolution. Several experiments have been conducted to investigate
the sensitivity of physical parameterisation like cumulus convection, planetary
boundary layer and micro physics processes. The structure of the vortex of
each cyclone at its mature stage is described with the best combination of
physics. The model performance is compared to the IMD observations. Results
indicate that the cyclonic storms of Aila and Laila are well simulated. In the
case of cyclone Aila the combination of TDS (Thermal Diffusion) surface
scheme, KF (Kain-Firstch) cumulus convection, YSU (Yonsei university) PBL
scheme and Lin et al. for the micro physics worked well, while for the Laila
cyclone the combination of TDS (Thermal Diffusion) surface scheme, KF (Kain-
Firstch) cumulus convection, MYJ (Mellor-Yamada-Janjic) PBL scheme and
Lin et al. for the micro physics worked well. Though each of the cyclones
preceeded a monsoon season they had varying influence on the performance
of successive monsoons of 2009 and 2010, in terms of rainfall yield. The study
will be continued further to probe in to the reasons why this is so?
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