Sensitivity of Mesoscale Simulation of Aila Cyclone to the Parameterization of Physical Processes Using WRF Model - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 300

Fig. 3: (a) Tracks and (b) & (c) Time evolution of intensity of the cyclone in terms
of MCP (hPa) and maximum wind (ms -1 ) respectively as obtained from IMD best fit
track and model simulations.
simulated by model though the movement of the storm was slower in the model
simulation. The average error in the track prediction in the whole period of
model simulation is found to vary in the range of 98-135 km with different CM
schemes. The track of the storm is slightly better simulated by model with
Goddard CM scheme. The vector displacement error and error in landfall time
and location in model simulations are also calculated and analyzed. It suggests
that the landfall time and location of the storm is reasonably well simulated by
the model using Goddard CM scheme with approximately 1:30 hours delay
and 25 km to the left of the actual landfall point of the storm. The location of
the landfall is also simulated well by model using other CM schemes with less
than 50 km.
The time evolution of observed and model simulated intensity of the cyclone
in terms of minimum central pressure (MCP) and maximum surface wind
(MSW) are presented in Figs 3(b) and (c). The intensity of the storm is well
simulated by the model with different CM schemes in first 36 hours but the
peak intensity of the cyclone could not be captured by model using most of the
schemes. The intensity of the cyclone at the dissipation stage is over predicted
by the model mainly because of delay of landfall in the model simulation. The
trend of intensification and dissipation rate is well simulated by model with
Goddard CM scheme. The simulated intensity of the storm, both in terms of
pressure drop and surface winds, is found to be highly sensitive to cloud