Sensitivity of Mesoscale Simulation of Aila Cyclone to the Parameterization of Physical Processes Using WRF Model - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 298

Fig. 1: Tracks of the cyclone Aila as obtained from model simulations
(a) convection and (b) PBL schemes and IMD best-fit track.
It suggests that the landfall time of the storm is reasonably well simulated
by the model with BMJ-YSU, KF-YSU and BMJ-MYJ combinations (with
approximately 30 minute error). It may be mentioned here that the model
simulation results are saved at one hour interval. The location of landfall is
also well simulated by the model with landfall position errors of 49 and 67 km
in BMJ-MYJ and BMJ-YSU combinations respectively.
The time evolution of the observed and model simulated intensity of the
cyclone in terms of minimum central pressure (MCP) and maximum surface
wind (MSW) are presented in Fig. 2. The intensity of the storm is under-
predicted by the model with BMJ and GD convection schemes (in combinations
with all PBL schemes). The intensity of storm is over-predicted by model
throughout the integration period with KF convection schemes. The intensity
of storm is better simulated with G3 convection scheme though the peak
intensity of the storm is under-predicted. The model simulated peak intensity
of the storm is found to be highly sensitive to the convection schemes with the
model simulated pressure drop and surface winds varying in the range of 17-
29 hPa and 12-20 m/s with different convection schemes. The same is found to
vary in the range of 5-11 hPa and 3-7 m/s with different PBL schemes.
Sensitivity to cloud microphysics parameterization schemes
The results obtained from the sensitivity experiments on CM schemes is
presented and discussed in this section. As discussed in the previous section,
the combination of G3 (cumulus convection)-MYJ (PBL) schemes provided
better simulation of the storm to the other compared combinations. Hence, the
second phase of the numerical experiments using various CM schemes is
conducted with G3-MYJ, cumulus convection-PBL (fixed) schemes. Figure
3(a) presents the model simulated track from different CM parameterization
schemes and IMD best-fit track. The track of the storm is reasonably well