Simulation of Cyclone ‘Aila-2009’ by Using WRF-ARW Model and Numerical Storm Surge Model - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 264

Fig. 4: Comparison of satellite observed and model ECP of Aila.
data shows that it attained the lowest ECP of about 967 hPa before the landfall.
It is far below the simulated ECP obtained from the model. This could be due
to weak representation of the system in the initial field of FNL data sets. Satellite-
derived maximum sustained wind data was also taken from Unisys website
(http://weather.unisys.com /hurricane /index.html). The simulated highest MSW
of Aila cyclone was about 30 m/s at 48-hour simulation. Unisys data showed
that MSW was about 34.2 m/s at 0600 UTC on 25 May 2009. Comparison of
satellite observed and model maximum wind speed of cyclone Aila is given at
Fig. 5. The simulated lowest ECP of Aila, before the landfall, was found to be
about 974 hPa at 48-hour forecast (Fig. 6).
5.3 Movement of Tropical Cyclones
Track forecasting has been a challenging task for meteorologists over the last
few decades in spite of the rapid development of numerical weather prediction
techniques. There had been numerous studies on track forecasting using several
models such as QLM, MM5, GFDL, BMRC, etc. over the Bay of Bengal and
other basins as well. Accurate track forecasting is also of great importance for
disaster management personnel for taking proactive measures to mitigate the
damages to life and property. Figure 1 shows 48-hour track forecasts together
with the observed or best track of Unisys. However, there are some track errors
due to temporal displacements. In order for clear understanding, vector errors
were calculated.