NWP Forecast Guidance during Phet at Oman Meteorological Service - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 226

storm moving 10 km/hour towards Sharqiyah region. The associated wind speed
around the centre was estimated to be 80 knots. On this day, Phet was classified
as category 2 tropical cyclone at about 2 UTC and located 18.5°N, 59.5°E
which is around 200 km southeast of Masirah Island. The associated wind
speed around the centre was estimated to be 90 knots. On June 3 rd 00 UTC,
Phet was upgraded to category 3 with estimated wind speed around the centre
of about 100 knots. On the afternoon of this day, the wind speed around the
centre reduced to 75 knots and therefore, the tropical cyclone was downgraded
to category 2. Phet made its landfall through Al-Ashkhara at 00 UTC of June
4 th . Then it was downgraded further to category 1 at 4 UTC centered south of
Sur and moving northeast. On the afternoon of this day (June 4 th ), the tropical
cyclone Phet was reclassified as tropical storm with associated wind speed of
about 45 knots. It then continued to move towards the Pakistan coast on June
5 th and finally made its second landfall on June 6 th over the Pakistan coast.
Figure 1 shows satellite images for different stages of Phet. Table 2 shows the
recorded total precipitation and maximum wind speed recorded in some of the
weather stations.
Fig. 1: Satellite images for different stages of Phet. © Eumetsat
2. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Simulation
2.1 Modelling Capabilities at Oman Meteorological
Department
Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN) is running
two different physical core (hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic) models in several