Multi-model Ensemble Based Extended Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 203

3. MME Forecast of Cyclogenesis during 2011
Post-monsoon Season
3.1 Observed Cyclonic Storm during 2011 Post-monsoon
Season
Unlike the post-monsoon season of 2010, the post-monsoon season of 2011
was not very active particularly the Bay of Bengal. During the post-monsoon
season of 2010 there were two cyclones viz., “Giri” and “Jal” formed over the
Bay of Bengal with “Giri” intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
(VSCS) in the month of October and the “Jal” intensified into a Severe Cyclonic
Storm (SCS) in the month of November (figure not shown). Whereas, as shown
in Fig. 1, during 2011 post-monsoon season only one TC “Keila” formed during
29 October to 4 November but over the Arabian Sea. There were, however,
three depressions formed over the north Indian Ocean out of which, two in the
Arabian Sea and one in the Bay of Bengal. Thus, the Arabian Sea was very
active and the Bay of Bengal was having no cyclone during October-December
2011, although it had a very severe cyclonic storm “Thane” towards the end of
December, 2011. In order to see the performance of extended range forecast,
the forecasts issued on the real time have been discussed. Following five systems
formed during the post-monsoon season of 2011:
(i) Depression over Bay of Bengal (19-20 October)
(ii) Cyclonic storm “Keila” over Arabian Sea (29 Oct-4 November)
(iii) Depression over Arabian Sea (6-10 November)
(iv) Depression over Arabian Sea (26 Nov-01 December)
(v) Very severe cyclone “Thane” over Bay of Bengal (25-30 December)
Fig. 1: Tracks of cyclones and depressions during October-December, 2011.