Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Multi-model Ensemble Based
Extended Range Forecast of
Tropical Cyclogenesis over the
North Indian Ocean
D.R. Pattanaik* and M. Mohapatra
India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan
Lodi Road, New Delhi - 110003
*e-mail: drpattanaik@gmail.com
1. Introduction
Over the North Indian Ocean (NIO), the months of October-December are
known to produce tropical cyclones (TCs) of severe intensity in the Bay of
Bengal, which after crossing the coast cause damages to life and property over
many countries surrounding the Bay of Bengal. The strong winds, heavy rains
and large storm surges associated with TCs are the factors that eventually lead
to loss of life and property. Heavy rains associated with cyclones are another
source of damage. The combination of a shallow coastal plain along with a
thermodynamically favourable environment allow TCs to impart high surface
winds, torrential rains and significant wave heights (wave setup plus storm
surge) as these systems move inland. In addition, the world's highest population
density coupled with low socio-economic conditions in the region has resulted
in several land-falling TCs becoming devastating natural disasters.
With the improvement in numerical model and use of wide ranges of non
conventional data in the assimilation system of the model there has been
considerable improvement in the forecast skill of TCs particularly in the short
range up to 72 hr (Mohapatra et al., 2013a and b). In India, many studies have
demonstrated the utility of TCs forecasts up to three days using global and
regional models (Sikka, 1975; Singh and Saha, 1978; Mohanty and Gupta,
1997; Prasad and Rama Rao, 2003; Pattanaik and Rama Rao, 2009). However,
the forecasting of genesis of TC and associated rainfall in the extended range
time scale (about two weeks in advance) is very useful in many respects. There
have been very limited works done in the area of predictability of NIO TCs
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