Advancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Using Aircraft Observations - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 181

Fig. 9: Impact of aircraft data (including the tail Doppler radar) on intensity forecasts
made by the HRD/EMC 27/9/3 HWRF using HEDAS (solid green) and the PSU ARW
using a EnKF data assimilation system (dashed green) compared to SHIFOR5 as a
percent improvement over SHIFOR5. The black lines (solid, dashed and dotted) show
the baseline skill and the 20% and 50% improvement goals respectively. The red line
shows a homogeneous comparison to the solid green line but with no aircraft data
included in the initialization. The PSU results only included the tail Doppler radar data
while the AOML results include all aircraft data (flight level data dropsondes, SMFR
surface wind data and tail Doppler radar data). Most cases with radar data from 2008-
2010 are included. Number of cases for the AOML and PSU results at each forecast
lead-time is shown across the top.
(S. Aberson (HRD) and F. Zhang (PSU) 2011, personal communication)
At the same time that HFIP is demonstrating the importance of the aircraft
observations to model initialization and forecast guidance, Rogers et al. (2012)
and Zhang et al. (2011b) are using the aircraft observations collected during
IFEX missions since 2005 and earlier hurricane flights with the P-3 aircraft to
improve our understanding of the hurricane structure and physical processes
responsible for that structure and its evolution. Analysis of these data sets was
instrumental in improvements to the vertical diffusion and air-sea exchange of
momentum and enthalpy in the operational HWRF model that is going into
operations this year (Gopalakrishnan et al., 2012).