Status and Plans for Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Warning Systems in the North Indian Ocean Region - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 147

agencies to provide timely information and warnings for emergency support
services.
• Collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to cyclonic
disturbances viz. wind, storm surge, pressure, rainfall, damage report, satellite
and radar derived information etc. and their exchange with Panel member
countries.
• Preparation of comprehensive reports on cyclonic disturbances formed over
NIO every year.
• Implementation of the Regional Cyclone Operational Plan of WMO/ESCAP
Panel.
• Research on storm surge, track and intensity prediction techniques.
3. Recent Initiatives and Outcomes
IMD continuously expands and strengthens its activities in relation to all the
above to ensure most critical meteorological support through observations,
analysis, predictions and warnings to disaster managers and decision makers
not only in the country but also to the NIO rim countries. To accomplish the
objectives as mentioned in section 2, the initiative has been carried out with
following priorities:
(i) Observational upgradation
(ii) Modernisation of cyclone analysis and prediction system
(iii) Cyclone analysis and forecasting procedure
(iv) Warning products generation, presentation and dissemination
(v) Confidence building measures and capacity building
As a result there have been significant improvements in monitoring,
prediction and early warning services of TCs over the NIO in recent years. For
comparison, the 24 hr track forecast errors and the skill scores during 2003 to
2011 are shown in Fig. 1. The figures clearly indicate the gradual improvement
in the cyclone forecast by IMD, as the error has decreased and the skill has
increased. The average operational forecast error of IMD for 24 hrs track forecast
is about 130 km. The average landfall error (100 km in last five years) is less
than the long period average error (150 km) for the landfalling TCs over the
NIO. It is also very much comparable to the forecast errors over other ocean
basins including north Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins.
Considering the intensity forecast, the average 24 hrs wind forecast error
has been about 10 knots for these cyclones. The average 24 hrs wind forecast
error has also decreased and skill has increased in recent years (RSMC, 2013).
The improvement in forecast in recent years is mainly due to improved
performance of NWP models along with the introduction of new NWP platforms
like IMD GFS, WRF, HWRF and ensemble prediction system (EPS). The mean
track forecast errors of NWP models. The performance of multi-model ensemble
(MME) prediction is reasonably good. The 48 hours track forecast errors by
MME technique of IMD is about 200 km (RSMC, 2012).