Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Status and Plans for Operational
Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and
Warning Systems in the North
Indian Ocean Region
M. Mohapatra*, B.K. Bandyopadhyay and Ajit Tyagi
India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan
Lodi Road, New Delhi - 110003
*e-mail: mohapatraimd@gmail.com
1. Introduction
The tropical warm Indian Ocean, like the tropical North Atlantic, the South
Pacific and the northwest Pacific, is a breeding ground for the disastrous tropical
cyclone (TC) phenomenon. TCs are accompanied by very strong winds,
torrential rains and storm surges. The reduction of cyclone disasters depends
on several factors including hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, preparedness
and planning, early warning, prevention and mitigation. The early warning is a
major component and it includes skill in monitoring and prediction of cyclone,
effective warning products generation and dissemination, coordination with
emergency response units and the public perception about the credibility of
the official predictions and warnings. India Meteorological Department (IMD)
is the nodal agency in the country to monitor and predict the cyclonic
disturbances over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) and issue the warning and
advisory bulletins. IMD, New Delhi also acts as a Regional Specialised
Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for providing cyclone advisories to the World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO)/Economic and Social Cooperation for
Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Panel member countries, viz., Bangladesh,
Myanmar, Thailand, Srilanka, Maldives, Pakistan and Oman.
According to the associated maximum wind speed at the surface level, the
TCs over NIO are classified (IMD, 2003) into different categories. It is called
as a cyclonic storm, if the associated maximum sustained wind speed is 34-47
knots; a severe cyclonic storm, if the wind speed is 48-63 knots; a very severe
cyclonic storm, if the wind speed is 64-119 knots and a super cyclonic storm,
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