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the next section of this paper is used for the analysis of historical TC data. The
statistical prediction models developed are presented in section 3. This is
followed by a discussion and conclusions in the final section.
2. Data and Methodology
A TC archive for the Southern Hemisphere has been prepared at the NCC in
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in close collaboration with international
partners (Kuleshov
et al., 2008, 2010). The archive is a result of multinational
efforts of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services from the
Southern Hemisphere nations and has been derived from several data sources.
The data for the western South Indian Ocean (30°E to 90°E) have been provided
by Météo-France (La Réunion), for the Australian region (90°E to 160°E) by
the Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (Brisbane, Darwin and Perth),
and for the eastern South Pacific Ocean (east of 160°E) by the Meteorological
Services of Fiji and New Zealand. TC tracks from these archives were merged
into one archive, ensuring consistency of track data when TCs cross regional
borders. The data from the Southern Hemisphere TC archive are available
from the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
history/tracks/).
The time series of TC annual occurrences in the Australian region is
presented in Fig. 1. To keep consistency with results of our previous studies,
the genesis of a TC is defined when a cyclonic system first attains a central
pressure equal to or less than 995 hPa. Primary focus of the study is the
Australian region; however prospects to develop skillful statistical models for
TC seasonal forecasting in the eastern South Pacific Ocean and the western
South Indian Ocean were also investigated.
Fig. 1:
Time series of TC annual occurrences in the Australian region for the
1969-70 to 2009-10 seasons.
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