Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Characteristics of Cyclogenesis over
the Indian Region during 1891-2011
with Special Emphasis on Bay of
Bengal vis-à-vis Arabian Sea
R.K. Jenamani* and O.P. Singh
India Meteorological Department, Lodhi Road
New Delhi - 110002
*e-mail: rjenamani@hotmail.com
1. Introduction
Long-term linear trend and decadal analysis of intense cyclonic disturbances
of various categories over the global ocean basins using the latest time series
helps in understanding the current climatic fluctuations of a region. It also
helps to initiate a better preparedness plan having better economically viable
mitigation policy adaptation (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2006
and 2010; Mendelsohn, 2012, etc.). With availability of best track data of various
ocean basin e.g. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), China Meteorological
Administration (CMA), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), India
Meteorological Department (IMD) etc. and satellite data, National Center for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP), European Reanalysis (ERA) data, such
studies have been carried out by various authors world-wide. Besides frequency
analysis of such systems, some of the studies also discussed about links of
increase or decrease in their frequencies and intensifications if any over any
basin with similar trends of associated genesis parameters and environmental
conditions, SST and then impact on climate change and impact from global
warming. Such studies were carried for North Indian Ocean (NIO) as early as
1990s by various experts when their frequencies were decreased to almost half
compared to their numbers in 1940s (Xavier and Joseph, 2000; Singh 2001;
Singh and Rahman, 2001; Jenamani and Dash, 2001; Jenamani et al., 2004;
Dash et al., 2004, etc.). Studies by other subsequent authors e.g. Webster et al.,
2005; Emanuel, 2005;
Knutson et al., 2010; WMO (2006, 2010); Mendelsohn
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