Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
TABLE 1.1
Changes in Temperature and Precipitation from a Set of 21 Global Models for
the A1B Scenario, Averaged over Western North America (Their Deinition)
Extreme Seasons
(%)
Temperature Response (°C)
Precipitation Response (%)
Season
Min.
25
50
75
Max.
Min.
25
50
75
Max.
Hot
Wet
Dry
DJF
1.6
3.1
3.6
4.4
5.8
-4
2
7
11
36
. 80
18
3
MAM
1.5
2.4
3.1
3.4
6.0
-7
2
5
. 8
14
. 87
14.
JJA
2.3
3.2
3.8
4.7
5.7
-18
-10
-2
. 2
10
100
. 3
SON
2.0
2.8
3.1
4.5
5.3
-3
3
6
12
18
. 95
17
2
Annual
2.1
2.9
3.4
4.1
5.7
-3
0
5
. 9
14
100
21
2
Notes:
. Changes.in.the.table.are.means.for.the.period.2080-2099.minus.means.for.the.period.1980-1999,.
expressed. in. degrees. (temperature). or. percentage. (precipitation). of. the. 1980-2099. base. period..
The.table.shows.the.minimum,.maximum,.25th,.50th,.and.75th.percentiles.of.the.differences.for.
the.21.models.(so,.roughly,.the.5th,.10th,.and.15th.highest.values)..The.“extreme.seasons”.portion.
of. the. table. indicates. how. often. late-twenty-irst-century. seasons. exceed. the. twentieth-century.
deinition. of. 95th. percentile. for. hot. or. wet. (or. 5th. percentile. for. dry).. If. the. distribution. were.
unchanged,.the.entry.would.be.5%..An.entry.appears.only.when.at.least.14.of.the.21.models.agree.
on.an.increase.(or.in.a.few.cases.where.the.number.is.less.than.ive,.a.decrease).
Source:
. Adapted.from.Table 11.1.of.Christensen,.J.H.;.Hewitson,.B.;.Busuioc,.A.;.Chen,.A.;.Gao,.X.;.
Held,. I.;. Jones,. R.;. Kolli,. R.K.;. Kwon,. W.-T.;. Laprise,. R.;. Magãa. Rueda,. V.;. Mearns,. L.;.
Menéndez,.C.G.;.Räisänen,.J.;.Rinke,.A.;.Sarr,.A.;.Whetton,.P..2007..Regional.climate.projec-
tions..In:.
Climate change 2007: The physical science basis
..Contribution.of.Working.Group.I.to.
the.Fourth.Assessment.Report.of.the.Intergovernmental.Panel.on.Climate.Change.[Solomon,.S.;.
Qin,.D.;.Manning,.M.;.Chen,.Z.;.Marquis,.M.;.Averyt,.K.B.;.Tignor,.M.;.Miller,.H.L..(eds.)]..
Cambridge.University.Press,.Cambridge,.United.Kingdom,.and.New.York,.USA.
change T, °C
change P, %
FIGURE 1.7
(See color insert.)
Scatterplots.of.change.in.mean.and.ratio.of.change.in.vari-
ance,. 1950-2000. versus. 2050-2100,. for. temperature. (left). and. precipitation. (right).. Colors.
indicate.the.models.and.are.the.same.as.in.Figure.1.6.
