Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
al..2009)..In.most.cases,.models.of.biota-climate.relationships.that.have.been.pos-
tulated.or.demonstrated.need.to.be.further.corroborated,.validated,.and.conirmed.
(Hulme.2005).
Although. considerable. insights. and. knowledge. of. the. effects. of. contemporary.
climate.change.have.been.gained,.much.remains.unknown..As.is.the.case.for.vulner-
ability.of.various.species.or.taxa.under.altered.climates,.it.remains.to.be.conirmed.
which.communities,.ecosystems,.and.ecoregions.may.be.least.and.most.affected.by.
contemporary.climate.change..As.with.most.species.(Beever.et.al..2010),.we.do.not.
know.whether.it.is.the.status.of.potentially.stressful.aspects.of.climate.or.the.magni-
tude.of.change.in.those.aspects.that.determines.the.vulnerability.of.communities.and.
ecosystems..At.these.broader.scales,.although.multi-.and.cross-scale.hierarchies.and.
dynamics.have.been.described.in.a.few.systems.(e.g.,.Allen.2007;.Peters.et.al..2007),.
these. are. the. exceptions.. Often,. data. with. high. resolution. from. broad. spatial. and.
temporal.extents.will.be.necessary.to.illuminate.such.relationships..We.also.suspect.
more. surprises. and. novel. insights. in. community.dynamics,. wherein. an. ecosystem.
component.or.process.is.affected.in.a.secondary.or.tertiary.manner,.as.a.function.of.
ecosystems'.organization.and.inter-connectedness.
LOOKING FORWARD TO THE FUTURE
Nearly.all.indications.suggest.that.the.climate.changes.the.earth.is.currently.expe-
riencing.will.not.only.
not
.subside.in.the.foreseeable.future,.but.will.likely.become.
more.pronounced.in.the.coming.decades.(IPCC.2007;.evidence.presented.in.Wilson.
and.Gutiérrez
this volume
)..Consequently,.in.spite.of.the.uncertainty.and.gaps.in.our.
understanding. detailed. previously,. conservation. planners,. land. managers,. adapta-
tion.and.mitigation.specialists,.and.other.conservation.practitioners.must.continue.to.
make.decisions.regarding.how.to.manage.and.conserve.ecosystems.and.their.com-
ponents. in. the. face. of. contemporary. climate. change.. Given. the. substance. of. the.
previous. chapters,. we. argue. that. these. efforts. must. be. prepared. for. greater. uncer-
tainty.than.has.been.evident.in.past.decades..To.best.inform.understanding.of.this.
variability,. we. urge. research. and. monitoring. efforts. to. regularly. employ. existing.
and. emerging. tools. to. quantify. uncertainty. in. displays. of. their. results.. Such. tools.
include. the. classic. conidence. intervals. (e.g.,. 95%),. standard. errors. (e.g.,. ±1. SE),.
and. standard. deviations;. CVs. (coeficients. of. variation);. a. posteriori
distributions.
for.Bayesian.analyses;.quantitative.mention.of.dispersion.and.skew,.when.relevant;.
probability.density.functions;.simulation.(e.g.,.Monte.Carlo).modeling;.fuzzy.logic;.
and.explicit.quantiication.of.process.variance..Fleishman.and.Murphy.(
this volume
).
provide.numerous.approaches.that.may.minimize.at.least.some.of.the.types.of.uncer-
tainty. attendant. with. wildlife-climate. investigations.. Furthermore,. adaptive. man-
agement.can.help.land.managers.address.the.uncertainties.associated.with.climate.
change.by.iteratively.learning.from.past.strategies.and.adjusting.future.management.
accordingly,.rather.than.acting.on.assumptions.(Knutson.and.Heglund
from.Chapter.
12;.McLennan
this volume
).
In. addition,. given. the. seeming. magnitude. of. the. challenge,. we. encourage.
researchers,. land. managers,. and. wildlife. and. conservation. practitioners. who. may.
have. already. been. wrestling. with. analogous. issues. to. seek. out. other. comparable.
