Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
and. Gutiérrez
this volume
).. Furthermore,. even. in. situations. where. anthropogenic.
drivers. are. contributing. minimally,. most. commonly,. effects. of. several. aspects. of.
climate.will.be.acting.simultaneously.(Peterson.et.al.
this volume
;.Jones
this volume
;.
Martínez-Meyer
this volume
)..Climate.will.act.on.biotas.in.both.direct.and.indirect.
ways.(Jones
this volume
;.Fleishman.and.Murphy
this volume
),.and.pathways.of.cli-
matic.inluence.may.involve.as.intermediates.(a).only.abiotic.ecosystem.components,.
(b).both.biotic.and.abiotic.components,.or.(c).(climate.acting.directly.on).a.suite.of.
only.biotic.components.
Studies. of. all. kinds. of. taxa. cement. the. observation. that. species. within. clades.
can. vary. dramatically. in. the. magnitude. of. their. response. to. climatic. inluence,. as.
a.function.of.life-history.characteristics,.synecology,.and.innumerable.other.factors.
(Blaustein.et.al.
this volume
;.Peterson.et.al.
this volume
;.Fleishman.and.Murphy
this
volume
;.Walther.et.al..2002;.Root.et.al..2003;.Parmesan.2006;.Lawler.et.al..2010)..
We. also. know. that. populations. from. different. portions. of. a. species'. geographic.
range.may.exhibit.apparently.different.responses.to.climatic.inluence.(Murphy.and.
Lovett-Doust.2007;.Beever.et.al..2010;.Blaustein.et.al.
this volume
;.Fleishman.and.
Murphy
this volume
)..Similarly,.different.models.and.algorithms.that.predict.future.
distributions.for.the.same.species.and.time.period.can.vary.widely.among.models;.
combining.predictions.into.an.ensemble.forecast.will.be.useful.in.some.contexts,.but.
understanding.the.reasons.behind.that.variability.may.be.important.in.other.contexts.
(Martínez-Meyer
this volume
).
Particular. insights. can. be. gained. by. empirically. comparing. responses. of. spe-
cies.that.might.be.predicted.to.respond.very.differently.to.climate,.across.a.gradi-
ent. of. important. contexts. (e.g.,. latitude,. elevation,. precipitation,. distance. to. water).
(Fleishman.and. Murphy
this volume
)..Robust. data.will.need.to.be.combined. with.
solid. biological. understanding. to. disentangle. effects. of. climate. from. other. factors.
that.can.inluence.the.measured.response.variables.(Fleishman.and.Murphy
this vol-
ume
)..We.know.that.some.aspects.of.climate.such.as.precipitation.may.respond.to.
one. climate-forcing. phenomenon. (e.g.,. Southern. Oscillation. Index). in. some. years,.
but.to.others.(e.g.,.North.Atlantic.Oscillation).in.other.years.(Goodin
this volume
)..
Analogously,. parameters. of. biotic. response,. even. within. the. same. population,. can.
vary. across. weeks,. months,. seasons,. years,. and. sex. and. age. classes. (Hallett. et. al..
2004)..The.various.chapters.have.also.explicitly.illustrated.the.types.of.caveats.that.
will. be. necessary. to. increase. the. pace. of. our. learning. through. time. about. biotic.
responses.to.climate.
REMAINING GAPS IN OUR UNDERSTANDING—SOME EXAMPLES
As. evidenced. in. the. chapters,. great. strides. have. been. achieved,. but. many. biotic.
responses.to.climate.change.are.poorly.understood..Here.we.outline.a.few.areas.that.
may. be. considered. as. relative. gaps. in. our. understanding,. and. consequently. could.
serve.as.avenues.for.further.research—across.a.range.of.taxa,.ecosystems,.and.tem-
poral.resolutions.
On. initial. inspection,. it. is. remarkable. how. much. uncertainty. remains. in. our.
understanding. of. the. climate. system. itself.. Although. there. are. general. predictions.
that. the. frequency. of. anomalous. events. (i.e.,. strong. departures. from. the. mean,. in.
