Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
dificulties.in.sustaining.both.species.and.ecosystems,.because.most.existing.natu-
ral.and.conservation.lands.were.acquired.with.speciic.conservation.targets.(rare.or.
otherwise.valued.elements.of.biodiversity,.ecosystems,.or.populations.of.species).in.
mind.(Grifith.et.al..2009;.Scott.et.al..2001;.Noss.2004)..Under.a.climate-change.
scenario,. managers. are. concerned. with. both. conservation. targets. and. conserva-
tion.opportunities..It.is.unlikely.that.biome.shifts.that.are.under.way.can.be.halted.
directly,. so. adaptive. strategies. must. be. sought.. Resource. managers. will. need. to.
address. the. following. questions:. Where. will. species. occur?. How. can. we. preserve.
self-sustaining. populations?. Where. can. we. focus. our. conservation. actions. most.
cost-effectively?.They.will.also.need.to.make.decisions.about.what.species.to.save,.
and.when.to.control.invasive.species.and.when.to.accept.them.as.new.members.of.a.
changing.assemblage.(Millar.et.al..2007)..Resource.managers.also.face.institutional.
obstacles;.agency.leaders.will.need.to.consider.organizational.changes.(Scott.et.al..
2009;. Meretsky. et. al.. 2006;. Grifith. et. al.. 2009).. For. example,. resource-manage-
ment.agencies.will.need.to.hire.staff.with.specialized.skills.such.as.modeling,.deci-
sion.analysis,.and.data.management.
Structured. decision. making. is. useful. in. a. climate-change. context. because. no.
assumptions.are.made.about.the.scale.or.scope.of.the.problem,.what.the.management.
objectives. are,. or. what. the. range. of. management. options. are.. By. reviewing. basic.
questions.such.as.“what.are.we.trying.to.accomplish?,”.SDM.allows.the.managers.
or.groups.of.stakeholders.to.revisit.the.fundamental.aspects.of.the.problem.before.
making.a.decision.or.implementing.a.solution..Structured.decision.making.addresses.
both. policy. (values). and. science. (analysis). (Gregory. and. Wellman. 2001).. Climate.
change. demands. that. we. think. about. our. values. and. engage. in. creative. thinking.
about. management. options;. SDM. is. a. framework. that. integrates. both. activities.
(Gregory,.Ohlson,.et.al..2006;.Gregory.and.Keeney.2002).
How.does.AM.differ.from.scenario.planning?.Scenario.planning.has.been.used.
by. groups. of. stakeholders. to. envision. alternative. futures. in. the. face. of. large. and.
irreducible.uncertainty.(Peterson.et.al..2003)..Scenarios.are.useful.for.capturing.a.
wide.range.of.variables.and.integrating.them.into.alternative.“stories”.that.capture.
the.main.uncertainties.about.the.future.(Brooke.2008)..These.alternative.futures.are.
used.to.evaluate.public.policies.such.as.zoning.laws,.energy.consumption,.conser-
vation.incentives,.and.other.broad.public.concerns..Scenario.planning.and.AM.are.
related;.both.tools.address.uncertainty.about.the.future..Scenario.planning.is.most.
useful.when.uncertainty.is.high.and.system.manipulations.are.dificult.or.impossible.
(Peterson.et.al..2003);.AM.is.useful.for.evaluating.the.relative.effectiveness.of.alter-
native.management.strategies..For.example,.scenario.planning.was.used.to.evaluate.
climate. models. for. the. midcontinental. area. of. North. America. (Minnesota). and. to.
recommend.speciic.management.and.restoration.strategies,.based.on.those.models.
(Galatowitsch.et.al..2009)..Adaptive.management.is.used.to.reduce.uncertainty.about.
the.outcomes.of.management.strategies.when.they.are.applied.in.speciic.locations..
We.focus.this.chapter.on.the.problem.of.resource.management.and.the.use.of.AM.as.
a.tool.for.coping.with.and.reducing.the.management.uncertainties.associated.with.
climate.change.
