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promotes.conservation.and.sustainable.use.in.an.equitable.way..How.can.resource.
managers. promote. conservation. and. sustainable. use. under. the. threat. of. climate.
change?.The.diverse.threats.associated.with.climate.change,.not.to.mention.threats.
due.to.widespread.land-use.changes.and.increases.in.the.“human.footprint”.on.the.
planet,.seem.overwhelming.
A.structured.approach.that.begins.with.clarifying.what.is.desired.from.the.land,.
both.short.term.and.long.term,.is.useful.and.sets.the.stage.for.selecting.the.appropri-
ate.conservation.practices..Resource.management.is.primarily.an.exercise.in.making.
decisions.that.best.achieve.the.manager's.objectives,.i.e.,.making.“good”.decisions..
Management. decisions. fall. along. a. wide. spectrum,. from. doing. nothing. to. taking.
major.actions,.such.as.creating.or.removing.a.dam.on.a.river—actions.that.may.be.
costly,.risky,.and.irreversible.from.a.practical.standpoint..Doing.nothing.may.also.
involve.cost.(lost.opportunities).and.risk..Decision.making.is.about.deciding.what.is.
valued.(i.e.,.forming.objectives).(Keeney.1992).
Fortunately,.decision.making.is.a.process.that.has.been.studied.extensively..There.
is.a.strong.body.of.literature.that.describes.the.theory.and.practice.of.decision.mak-
ing;.this.information.is.potentially.very.useful.to.resource.managers.who.are.seek-
ing.tools.for.dealing.with.rapid.environmental.change.(Keeney.1992;.Walters.and.
Holling.1990)..The.terms.“structured.decision.making.(SDM)”.and.“decision.analy-
sis”.are.applied.to.a.process.of.breaking.down.a.problem.into.component.parts.for.
purposes. of. improving. decision. making. (Table  12.1). (Gregory. and. Keeney. 2002;.
Martin.et.al..2009)..When.decision.making.is.iterative.and.focused.on.learning.for.
the.purpose.of.improving.future.decisions,.the.process.is.called.adaptive.manage-
ment.(AM).(Williams.et.al..2007).
Adaptive. management. is. a. structured. process. that. can. help. managers. address.
the. uncertainty. associated. with. climate. change. by. learning. from. past. strate-
gies. and. adjusting. future. management. accordingly. (Lyons. et. al.. 2008;. McCarthy.
and. Possingham. 2007).. Biome. shifts. predicted. under. climate. change. may. lead. to.
TABLE 12.1
Elements of Structured Decision Making (Making Smarter Decisions)
Element
Description
Problem
Deine.your.decision.problem.to.solve.the.right.problem.
Objectives
Clarify.what.you're.really.trying.to.achieve.with.your.decision.
Alternatives
Create.better.alternatives.from.which.to.choose.
Consequences
Describe.how.well.each.alternative.meets.your.objectives.
Trade-offs
Equate.the.value.of.different.levels.of.achievement.on.different.objectives.
Uncertainty
Identify.and.quantify.the.major.uncertainties.affecting.your.decision.
Risk.tolerance
Account.for.your.willingness.to.take.risks.
Linked.decisions
Plan.ahead.by.coordinating.current.and.future.decisions.
Source: . Adapted. from. Gregory,. R.. S.,. and. R.. L.. Keeney.. 2002.. Making. Smarter. Environmental.
Management. Decisions. Journal of American Water Resources Association . 38:1603.. With.
permission.
 
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