Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
12
ResourceManagers
RisetotheChallenge
ofClimateChange
Melinda G. Knutson and Patricia J. Heglund
CONTENTS
Introduction............................................................................................................ 261
The.Threat.of.Climate.Change............................................................................... 262
A.Structured.Approach.to.Decision.Making.......................................................... 263
Deining.the.Problem,.Setting.Objectives.............................................................. 266
Is.History.a.Benchmark.for.the.Future?................................................................. 267
Modeling.the.Future............................................................................................... 269
Creative.Alternatives............................................................................................... 271
Considering.Consequences,.Embracing.Uncertainty............................................. 271
Monitoring.and.Adaptive.Management............................................................. 271
Values.and.Trade-Offs............................................................................................ 274
Example:.Coastal.Wetland.Impoundments.and.Sea-Level.Rise............................. 274
Summary................................................................................................................. 276
Acknowledgments.................................................................................................. 277
References.............................................................................................................. 277
INTRODUCTION
Climate. change. presents. unprecedented. challenges. and. is. likely. to. stimulate. pro-
found.changes.in.the.practice.of.natural.resource.management..Many.management.
practices.that.were.routine.in.the.past.will.need.to.be.reevaluated.as.ecosystems.adjust.
to.changes.in.temperature,.precipitation,.storm.events,.and.sea.level.rise.(Palmer.et.
al..2009;.Sutherland.et.al..2004)..Uncertainties.will.increase.regarding.the.appropri-
ate.conservation.targets,.the.outcomes.of.alternative.management.practices,.and.how.
to.evaluate.trade-offs.among.competing.conservation.objectives..New.tools.will.be.
needed.to.cope.with.this.uncertainty..Resource.managers.will.need.to.work.closely.
with.species.and.ecosystem.scientists,.as.well.as.modelers,.decision.analysts,.statisti-
cians,.information.technologists,.and.other.technical.experts.to.eficiently.monitor.
and.improve.the.outcomes.of.their.management.practices.
261
