Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
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4.. Identifying.and.clearly.communicating.based.on.model.analysis.ecological.
and.social.values.at.risk.and.make.recommendations.for.initiating,.improv-
ing,.or.ceasing.ongoing.management.actions
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5.. Introducing.and.explaining.emerging.management.issues
It. is. this. modeling. component. of. the. knowledge. system. that. provides. the. “pro-
active”. component. of. the. adaptive. management. system. proposed. in. this. chapter..
Through.modeling,.we.attempt.to.structure.and.test.our.understanding.of.ecologi-
cal.changes.relevant.for.park.management.by.developing.models.that.predict.future.
rates.of.change.based.on.this.understanding,.and.past.monitoring.observations.or.
back-casting.. Following. up. monitoring. within. the. 5-year. framework. of. State. of.
the.Park.reporting.tests.the.accuracy.of.our.predictions;.models.are.subsequently.
reined.to.improve.predictions..Within.a.few.5-year.model.iterations,.parks.should.
develop.a.reasonable.understanding.of.future.states.and.the.ecological.implications.
of.key.issues..The.effects.of.management.actions.such.as.prescribed.ire.or.species.
translocations.can.also.be.modeled,.and.success.assessed.through.follow-up.effec-
tiveness.monitoring.
p
ark
m
anagemenT
p
roCess
The.process.of.park-management.planning.is.well.deined.at.Parks.Canada.(PCA.2008b),.
and. the. intention. of. this. proposed. knowledge. system. is. that. decisions. can. be. made.
based.on.well-communicated.science.advice.that.reduces.the.uncertainty.and.describes.
the.implications.of.ongoing.ecological.change.in.a.given.park..The.other.key.knowledge.
to.be.provided.to.park.managers.is.the.assessment.and.relative.risks.of.actively.manag-
ing.a.problem,.versus.letting.an.anticipated.change.unfold.without.intervention.
The.State.of.the.Park.Report.(SOPR).is.an.important.document.that.managers.can.
use,.and.ecological.assessments.based.on.the.modeling.tools.could.be.presented.in.
this. report,. along. with. other. monitoring. results. and. assessments.. The. SOPR. sum-
marizes.changes.in.the.overall.EI.of.the.park.and.reports.on.the.success.of.EI.invest-
ments.made.through.active.management..Ecological.issues.raised.through.the.SOPR.
are.vetted.through.the.Scoping.Document,.which.park.managers.use.to.set.the.goals.
and.objectives.to.be.included.in.the.new.iteration.of.the.Park.Management.Plan.(refer.
to.Figure 10.2).
The.key.difference.between.managing.protected.areas.in.a.world.assumed.to.be.
stable. and. one. characterized. by. accelerating. directional. ecological. change. is. that.
managers. will. need. to. much. more. frequently. assess. and. renegotiate. ongoing. pro-
cesses.and.programs.in.light.of.considerable.uncertainty..Hopefully,.as.time.passes,.
park.management.teams.will.develop.a.general.understanding.of.the.nature.and.rates.
of.change,.and.what.they.mean.for.core.values.of.the.park.through.focused.modeling.
with.follow-up.monitoring..However,.it.is.also.clear.that.our.understanding.of.this.
ongoing.change.will.eventually.be.usurped.by.ecological.surprise.(e.g.,.ungulate.dis-
ease,.epidemic.insect.outbreaks,.the.emergence.of.increased.tundra.ire.as.a.distur-
bance.agent),.and.we.will.need.to.understand.and.respond.to.these.events.as.well..For.
all.of.these.challenges,.an.operational.knowledge.system.like.the.one.described.here.
