Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
productivity,. composition,. and. structure,. and. population. models. for. keystone. park.
species.
Engaging. a. team. of. multidisciplinary. scientists. in. park. monitoring. and. man-
agement.is.a.very.important.component.of.the.knowledge.system.required.to.suc-
cessfully. guide. park. decision. making. to. meet. the. challenges. of. accommodating,.
mitigating,.and.responding.to.climate.change.in.northern.parks..The.key.to.opti-
mizing.this.relationship.is.to.ensure.that.research.is.focused.on.identifying.and.elu-
cidating.the.most.important.ecological.issues.the.park.is.facing,.and.in.providing.
clearly.communicated.information.in.a.timely.manner.and.in.a.context.useful.for.
informing.management.
m
anagemenT
d
eCision
s
upporT
The.science.and.monitoring.we.can.bring.to.bear.on.a.given.ecological.issue.will.
only.be.useful.for.park.management.if.science.knowledge.is.clearly.communicated.
in.plain.language,.and.within.a.clear.management.context..Park.managers.need.to.
know. the. most. critical. ecological. change. that. is. occurring,. why. and. how. rapidly.
it. is. happening,. and. what. the. implications. are. for. ecological. integrity,. indigenous.
lifestyles,. and. other. park-management. objectives.. Based. on. this. information. there.
may.or.may.not.be.active.management.actions.that.park.managers.can.take.that.will.
mitigate.or.ameliorate.the.observed.and.predicted.ecological.change.
The.objective.of.the.management.decision.support.component.is.to.develop.tools.
that.present.science.knowledge.in.a.way.that.will.prove.useful.for.park.managers.to.
understand. ecological. issues. and. take. decisions. on. active. management.. Using. the.
tundra.shrub.example,.science.advice.should.attempt.to.provide.answers.to.questions.
such. as. “how. will. spreading. shrubs. affect. habitat. values. for. caribou,. muskoxen,.
moose,.and.grizzly.bear,.and.over.what.time.frame?.If.negatively.impacted.by.these.
changes,. what. management. options. are. there. for. impacted. species?. Is. prescribed.
ire.a.viable.option?.Is.there.habitat.farther.north.or.at.higher.elevations?.Do.these.
changes.increase.the.risk.of.tundra.ire?.Are.potential.actions.feasible.given.inancial.
and.human.resources?.What.are.the.risks.of.acting.or.not.acting?”
One.set.of.tools.to.support.decision.making.will.come.from.issue-speciic.or.mul-
tiapplication.models.that.may.include
.
1.. Models.to.predict.5-year.and.15-year.change.in.local.(scaled.down).climate,.
and. the. potential. for. critical. weather. events. such. as. strong. winds,. heavy.
precipitation,.or.tundra.icings;.reine.in.5-year.iterations.based.on.assess-
ment. of. local. climate. monitoring. data;. such. down-scaled. climate. models.
could.be.used.to.drive.other.process.based.models
.
2.. Models. to. predict. 5-year. and. 15-year. change. in. targeted. ecological. com-
munities/populations. (e.g.,. tundra-shrub. expansion,. tree-line. movement.
upslope,.caribou.calving.production,.char.population.sustenance);.reine.in.
5-year.iterations.based.on.assessment.of.monitoring.data
.
3.. Sensitivity. analyses/risk. assessments. of. ecological. change. in. relation. to.
proposed.management.actions.(e.g.,.prescribed.burning);.test.action.versus.
no-action.options
