Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
TABLE 10.1
Predicted 2050 Winter and Summer, Temperature and Precipitation Changes
for Northern National Parks from 1961 to 1990 Averages Canadian Climate
Center General Circulation Model I (CCCma-CGCMI)
Temperature Change (°C)
Precipitation Change (%)
Park/Reserve
Winter
Summer
Winter
Summer
Aulavik
+5.5
+5.0
-18
+10
Auyuittuq
+5.2
+2.6
-4
-4
Quttinirpaaq
+5.9
+4.0
+23
+20
Ivvavik
+5.9
+4.2
-3
+25
Sirmilik
No.data
No.data
No.data
No.data
Torngat.Mountains
No.data
No.data
No.data
No.data
Tuktut.Nogait
+4.3
+4.4
-24
. 0
Vuntut
+5.9
+4.2
-3
+25
Ukkasiksalik
No.data
No.data
No.data
No.data
Wapusk
+8.2
+3.8
+16
+9
Source: . Scott,. D.,. and. R.. Sufling. 2000.. Climate Change and Canada's National Parks .. Environment.
Canada,.Toronto,.Ontario.
organized. by. major. park. ecosystem.. Park. managers. can. expect. that. all. northern.
national.parks.will.experience.major.shifts.in.species.and.community.composition,.
peri-glacial. processes,. and. ecological. drivers. over. the. next. 35-40. years.. Potential.
effects.will.vary.from.park.to.park,.depending.on.the.park's.location.in.relation.to.
change.gradients,.the.physiographic.characteristics.of.the.park,.and.local.biological.
factors..For.example,.about.95%.of.the.area.of.Wapusk.NP.is.comprised.of.wetland.
ecosystems. dotted. by. thousands. of. small. lakes. with. little. relief,. where. hydrologic.
changes.will.be.prominent..By.contrast,.Torngat.Mountains.NP.is.a.dramatic,.moun-
tainous.landscape.with.few.lakes,.and.where.the.ecological.effects.of.climate.change.
will.be.primarily.terrestrial..For.this.reason,.potential.ecological.changes.will.have.
to.be.assessed.separately.for.each.park,.and.this.assessment.should.guide.the.design.
of.park.monitoring.and.reporting.systems.
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
The.direction.and.magnitude.of.climatic.change.and.potential.ecological.effects.in.
northern.national.parks.were.discussed.previously,.and.these.anticipated.effects.pro-
vide.a.general.guide.to.the.kinds.of.changes.park.monitoring.programs.will.need.to.
be.designed.to.track.and.report,.to.provide.the.most.relevant.and.timely.information.
required. by. park. managers.. What. is. also. clear. from. the. discussion. around. arctic.
climate.change.is.that.there.is.a.considerable.degree.of.uncertainty.in.two.key.com-
ponents.of.the.scenarios.discussed:
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