Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
CONCLUSIONS
Climate.change.is.affecting.natural.systems.in.many.ways..To.the.degree.that.we.are.
able.to.understand.biotic.responses.to.these.changes,.we.will.be.able.to.anticipate.
and.possibly.avoid.undesirable.future.consequences..Considering.that.the.distribu-
tion.of.a.species.is.the.ultimate.spatial.expression.of.population.processes,.distribu-
tional. shifts. resulting. from. climatic. changes. are. among. the. last. signals. able. to. be.
detected..However,.irrefutable.evidence.exists.that.distributional.shifts.are.already.
occurring.in.many.taxonomic.groups.worldwide..Hence,.the.future.is.here,.and.man-
agement.and.conservation.strategies.must.account.for.these.effects.from.this.day.for-
ward..Predictive.biogeography.has.seen.an.explosive.growth.during.the.last.decade.
in.important.conceptual.and.operational.progress;.nonetheless,.much.work.remains.
ahead.before.distribution.models.can.be.reliably.used.for.guiding.policy.decisions..
Uncertainty.in.model.predictions.remains.the.main.issue.that.demands.further.work,.
but.results.of.recent.approaches.are.promising..The.next.few.years.will.be.a.time.for.
maturity. of. the. ield,. during. which. the. integration. of. correlative. and. mechanistic.
models.and.the.development.of.new.approaches.for.predicting.abundance.patterns.
will.observe.important.progress.
SUMMARY
Geographic.distributional.shifts.are.a.widely.documented.response.of.biodiversity.to.
past.and.current.climatic.changes..These.shifts.mainly.relect.the.capacity.of.species.
to. track. their. suitable. environments. across. space. when. environmental. conditions.
become.inappropriate.and.they.are.unable.to.adapt..Therefore,.if.we.know.the.envi-
ronmental. conditions. that. determine. species'. geographic. ranges,. prediction. of. the.
direction.and.magnitude.of.range.shifts.due.to.climatic.changes.becomes.possible..
Two.main.approaches.have.been.developed.for.this.task:.Ecological.Niche.Models.
(ENMs).and.mechanistic.models..In.this.chapter,.I.briely.explain.the.general.prin-
ciples.of.each,.and.discuss.the.main.assumptions.and.conceptual.and.implementation.
complexities. that. have. limited.the. usefulness. of. ENM.for. predicting. future. distri-
butional. consequences. of. climate. change. more. accurately.. I. address. the. topics. of.
data.and.methodological.biases,.uncertainty,.and.model.validation,.and.offer.some.
strategies.for.improving.the.modeling.practice..Finally,.I.discuss.the.future.trends.for.
modeling.species'.distribution.and.abundance.under.climate.change.
REFERENCES
Allouche,.O.,.O..Steinitz,.D..Rotem,.A..Rosenfeld,.and.R..Kadmon..2008..Incorporating.distance.
constraints.into.species.distribution.models..
Journal of Applied Ecology
.45.(2):599-609.
Anderson,.B..J.,.H..R..Akcakaya,.M..B..Araújo,.D..A..Fordham,.E..Martinez-Meyer,.W..Thuiller,.
and.B..W..Brook..2009..Dynamics.of.range.margins.for.metapopulations.under.climate.
change..
Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences
276.(1661):1415-1420.
Anderson,.R..P.,.A..T..Peterson,.and.M..Gómez-Laverde..2002..Using.niche-based.GIS.model-
ing.to.test.geographic.predictions.of.competitive.exclusion.and.competitive.release.in.
South.American.pocket.mice..
Oikos
.98.(1):3-16.
