Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
4. Conclusions
A formulation for transportation network risk assessment is presented that considers
ground motion, liquefaction and landslide hazards as well as the contribution of direct
physical loss and operational loss. Application of the methodology to the San Francisco
Bay Area shows that the operational loss is at least as large as the direct physical loss
and can at times exceed that loss depending on the traffic conditions of the region, the
network redundancy and the bridge resiliency in the system. It is found that liquefaction
hasthehighestinfluenceofallthehazards,butadditionalresearchtodevelopmorerobust
methods of analysis is recommended. Consideration of ground motion and bridge dam-
agecorrelationappearstobeanimportantfactorintheestimationofriskuncertaintyand
shouldbeincluded.Finally,thecontributionofeachcorrelationappearstohaveanequal
weight.
Theriskassessmentmethodologyanditsapplicationdemonstratetheimportanceofcon-
sideration of uncertainty at various levels of the modeling. Decisions on the resilience of
the systemcan be made rationally only if the overall riskisevaluated.
Acknowledgment
The partial support by the Earthquake Engineering Research Centers Program of the
NationalScienceFoundation,AwardNo.EEC-9701568andtheUPSFoundationEndow-
ment isgratefully acknowledged.
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