Uncertainty and Risk - A Companion to Environmental Geography - page 81

Chapter 6
Uncertainty and Risk
James D. Brown and Sarah L. Damery
Introduction
Uncertainties and risks pervade all aspects of scientifi c research and decision making.
They are apparent both in the processes through which knowledge is gained and in
its outcomes . Uncertainty refers to a lack of confi dence about our knowledge
(Brown, 2004). Risk involves deciding with a lack of confi dence, where the precise
outcome is unknown, but one or more possible outcomes may cause harm. While
these concepts are not new, they have received increasing attention from scientists,
policy-makers, and social theorists, and are linked to claims about paradigm shifts
within science and in its relationship with society (Gibbons, 1999). While traditional
modes of enquiry emphasised the primacy of scientifi c knowledge and its ability to
resolve, and ultimately control, the 'true' state of the world, scientifi c determinism
has since been criticised for its inability to tackle the worst problems facing our
modern societies (Beck, 1992; Jasanoff, 1996). Problems such as climate change,
environmental degradation, and 'natural disasters' are characterised by paralysing
uncertainties (Handmer et al., 2001), multiple vested interests (Winstanley et al.,
1998), and extensive inequality (Parry et al. 2007).
Numerous typologies and techniques have been developed to conceptualise,
assess, control, and communicate uncertainty. These include probability theory
(Bernardo and Smith, 2000), possibility theory (Zadeh, 1978) and game theory (von
Neumann and Morgenstern, 1944). Such treatments have varied substantially, both
within and between disciplines, and between the social and physical sciences. For
example, many social science researchers emphasise the social and psychological
origins of uncertainty and risk (e.g., Adams, 1995). Conversely, many physical sci-
entists have ignored these aspects or attempted to control them artifi cially through
model inputs and outputs (Shackley and Wynne, 1995). Indeed, an important argu-
ment of this chapter is that current treatments of uncertainty, far from increasing
transparency and accountability in geographical research, often provide little more
than a probabilistic façade on traditional, deterministic practices.
In environmental decision making, uncertainties may be suffi ciently large to
generate persistent confl icts and indecision. Uncertainties in decision outcomes are