Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 25
Ecosystem Prediction and
Management
Robert A. Francis
Introduction
Human survival depends on the resources and other so-called 'services' (e.g., nutri-
ent cycling, climate regulation, soil formation) provided by ecosystems. Conse-
quently, active management of biotic and abiotic ecosystem resources (e.g.,
production and consumption of plants and animals and their associated products,
regulation and abstraction of water resources) has been central to the development
of human civilisation since at least the early Holocene (e.g., Itzstein-Davey et al.,
2007). All ecosystems are dynamic and exhibit notable complexity, variability, sto-
chasticity and non-linearity (e.g., Pahl-Wostl, 1995; Arrow et al., 2000), although
explicit recognition of these properties is a relatively recent development (e.g., May,
1987). Effi cient and sustainable resource management depends on predictability of
both the resources of interest and the wider ecosystems on which they depend.
However, the variability and complexity inherent to ecosystems and their compo-
nent parts means that prediction at any but the simplest levels is a substantial chal-
lenge, and one that we are ill-equipped to meet, given our current understanding of
ecosystem dynamics.
The Development of the Ecosystem Concept
Scientifi c appreciation of the variability and complexity of ecosystems and their
components has emerged in recent decades out of an interest in variability and
complexity across a range of scientifi c disciplines, including mathematics, physics,
biology and physical geography (e.g., Manson, 2001). Ecosystems (and indeed,
many natural phenomena) were originally thought to operate in relatively simple,
predictable ways (see discussions in Golley, 1993; Gaichas, 2008). Modern concepts
of ecosystems and ecological processes developed out of long-standing philosophical
traditions of natural history stretching back to classical antiquity. Aristotelian
enquiries into nature began with simple investigations into the properties of biotic
and abiotic ecosystem components, encapsulated within a teleological framework
of idealised 'types' (Benson 2000). Subsequently, scientifi c thought and experimen-
