Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 21
Integrated Assessment
James Tansey
Introduction
It has become commonplace to argue that interdisciplinarity within and between
the social and natural sciences is important for advancing human understanding of
social and natural systems. This version of interdisciplinarity looks a bit like cross
cultural dialogue between disciplinary tribes who have developed their own spe-
cialised lexicon and are seeking to innovate at the margins with other disciplines.
In contrast, Integrated Assessment (IA) adopted interdisciplinarity as a central orga-
nising principle. The impetus for this embrace of interdisciplinarity came from the
strong problem orientation of this cluster of methods. The early history of Integrated
Assessment focused on addressing the complexities of representing and modelling
global climate change but the methods developed by practitioners were soon
extended to include a range of problem domains including regional air pollution,
land use planning, and urban development.
The identifi cation of global climate change over the last two decades laid bare
the fundamental limitations of narrow disciplinary approaches to understanding the
complex interactions within and between biogeophysical systems operating on a
planetary scale. There are broader efforts to understand coupled systems on a global
scale that do not label themselves 'Integrated Assessment' but they often lack policy
orientation or a strong problem focus. The central problematic that led to the birth
of the term 'Integrated Assessment' was the task of connecting atmospheric models,
to models of ocean circulation and terrestrial biotic and abiotic systems in a manner
that made them policy relevant. Over time it became increasingly important also to
represent social systems as well. Policymakers wanted answers to questions about
the likely costs of climate change and, more recently, researchers have sought to
understand how adaptation, innovation, and technological diffusion inter-relate to
create the possibility of distinct development pathways over the coming century. As
will become clearer below, the participatory turn in IA in the late nineties, which
parallels in many ways the participatory turn in risk assessment and environmental
assessment, spawned a number of highly innovative approaches to modelling and
