UNCERTAINTY AND RELIABILITY - Introduction to Soft Soil Geotechnique: Content, Context and Application - page 107

8 UNCERTAINTY AND RELIABILITY

A UNCERTAINTY IN GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING
For large projects, where soil mechanics is prominently involved, corresponding
construction cost and time seem not well predictable. They usually overrun
seriously, and sometimes it goes wrong entirely. Some experts proclaim that sound
engineering judgment is of prime importance above a sophisticated approach.
Others state that inadequate soil investigation and lack of awareness of this aspect
is to blame (Littlejohn), or when looking at various geotechnical failures one may
conclude that human error is the culprit. From reviewing building pit failures, it is
observed that in 80% of these failure cases relevant knowledge existed but was not
available and applicable to the responsible people at the spot in proper time (Van
Tol).
Modern societies do not accept anymore that issues, which are recognised for
quite some time, are not being properly understood. Investment in knowledge
changed from searching scientific truth to actuality and reality. This is a problem
especially in geotechnical engineering, since here uncertainty is a unavoidable
characteristic, unfortunately not generally recognised and not managed in
systematic way. For society, it seems that geotechnical engineering fits in the
'disappointment' part of the hype curve (Fig 8.1).

geotechnical
engineering

geotechnical
engineering

geotechnical
engineering

image image image

1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. Technical breakthrough Technical breakthrough Technical breakthrough Technical breakthrough Technical breakthrough Technical breakthrough

2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. Great expectations Great expectations Great expectations Great expectations Great expectations Great expectations

3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. Disappointment Disappointment Disappointment Disappointment Disappointment Disappointment

4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. How doest it really work How doest it really work How doest it really work How doest it really work How doest it really work How doest it really work

5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4

1 1 1 1 23 23 23 23

5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. Mature technology Mature technology Mature technology Mature technology Mature technology Mature technology

time time time

Figure 8.1 The hype curve (after Gartner)

Communicating to outside the technical world, i.e. transparent knowledge
transfer, while recognizing the different types of communication, is becoming more
essential, in particular with regard to informing others of intrinsic uncertainties and
how to address them. And here, the process of contextualization presents a new
paradigm (Barends in Terzaghi Oration 2005, Annex III), in which engineers and
technical scientists should find their place. The current development of an integral
approach in research agendas for the construction sector in a context of knowledge-
driven economy, the handling of soil-related uncertainties using the benefits of
pore-space engineering, biotechnology (SmartSoil®) and the Internet, and
promising innovations, such as a concept for collective brains (GeoBrain) and the
process of risk management in geotechnical design and construction (GeoQ) are
new challenges that may improve the status of the geotechnical profession.