Decision Making for Sustainable Use and Development - Coastal Lagoons: Ecosystem Processes and Modeling for Sustainable Use and Development - page 338

should gather the best data and expertise on the SES and assess each of the impacts
in order to identify which are the key driving forces and variables in this system.
An example might include the determination that the industrial sector is the key
driving force in the point source contamination or pollution in the lagoon system,
which has diminished the ability of lagoons to provide clean water for tourism,
fisheries, etc.
Another example might be that of poor agricultural practices resulting in
nonpoint source pollution and water quality degradation. It is often a combination
of these variables that affect the lagoon ecosystem integrity, and it is the task of
the decision maker to address each of these driving forces that are causing the
problem in the most integrated, long-term method possible. This then calls for
inventories of farms, agricultural co-ops and industries, agricultural agents, and
the other existing socio-economic units that address the agriculture in the area.
Further information and knowledge needed here might also include the banking
and insurance structure, which provides resources to the farming community and
affects their farming structure. It also includes an analysis for the farming com-
munity of the kinds and numbers of crops, farms, agricultural markets, equipment,
financing, programs, and regulations. Oglethorpe and Sanderson present an eco-

logical economic model for agri-environmental policy analysis, which includes
many of these factors.
Only through use of the most current data and knowledge of this system can
the decision maker recognize and evaluate the various options to address the problem.
A process for involving and engaging these agricultural and support socio-economic
units needs to be developed as addressed in Section 8.4.7. Other SES infrastructures
involve the tourism, fishing, or municipality planning sector. It is the task of the
decision maker to identify which of these key SES units and structures are the driving
forces behind both the problem and resolution for the lagoon conditions.
Decision makers should weigh the cost and benefits of their preferred alternative
choices before making a final decision. Estimation of the economic value of each
of the goods and services provided will supply critical data for a cost-benefit anal-
ysis.

27

The use of a model to predict outputs of the SES should provide the basis
for estimating both the ecological and economic changes expected ( see Chapter 6
for details). As a model predicts new outputs, these changes in the NC will need to
be recorded as assets or liabilities for the affected economy. Each change in the
model's input variables has a corresponding output change in the NC that needs to
be documented in economic terms. Assigning monetary values to all goods and
services is the critical link in providing more complete data for decision makers to
determine the consequences of their actions in terms of benefit or loss to public or
private financial interests ( Figure 8.4) .

28

29

One scenario would be that of lagoon fisheries. If input variables such as toxics
or nutrient loads increase, there could be a resulting decrease in the fisheries stock.
The corresponding market values for the fish stock, the resulting decline in local
employment, and other fisheries stock-related goods and services provided by the
fisheries should be quantified in order to estimate the economic impacts of such a
change. This is the additional data that the decision maker needs to analyze the cost
and benefits of any decision that might influence this system.