Monitoring Program Design - Coastal Lagoons: Ecosystem Processes and Modeling for Sustainable Use and Development - page 318

Thus, the preliminary verification of a monitoring program by modeling
(Figure 7.2) could essentially increase the effectiveness of the design of the moni-
toring spatio-temporal scheme, which should be used for a long period without
changes.

7.4.2 P ERSPECTIVE : M ODELING TO M ONITORING

As discussed in Chapter 2, the value of the model for sustainable management as a
forecasting tool directly depends on the amount and quality of data available. The
more complex the model, the more parameters are needed to fit it; the smaller the
amount of data used, the greater the uncertainty of the result. A general rule is that
if the information base is not complete enough, an adequately simplified or “screen-
ing” model should be constructed.
The challenge is to fill the model with the sufficient data needed at any phase
of model design, implementation, and use. Monitoring supplies the most important
ingredients of the information needed during the phases of model design or model
selection. At this phase any knowledge is useful to identify the system or lagoon
type, and the more detailed the information is in space and time, the better. But the
monitoring results are not completely exhaustive. Some historical information or
results of case studies also are very valuable.
In the next phase, when the model is already chosen and its implementation is
under way, the monitoring should be enlarged by studies dedicated to modeling. The
results of monitoring (which is normally undertaken to reveal the long-term variations
of the system) are usually not enough to calibrate a model, because modeling is not
the purpose of standard monitoring. The data collected during monitoring are very
often unacceptable or insufficient to completely fit a model; for example, not all the
needed parameters have been measured, or these parameters have been measured at
noncomparable periods or with noncomparable accuracy. Therefore, a special type
of data collection program for model calibration and verification is essential.
Very often such projects are called “monitoring,” but they are not actually
monitoring because they do not satisfy the time duration requirement. Such pro-
grams, even being held according to a fixed prearranged spatio-temporal scheme as
in standard monitoring, can be referred to as short-term data collection programs
for model implementation to emphasize that the duration of the programs is short.
In a practical sense it may vary from 2-3 months for calibration of the hydrodynamic
module to 1-3 years for calibration of the advection-dispersion, water quality, or
some biological modules.
Following the implementation, another type of modeling dedicated study—
model accompanied (attendant) current data supply—has to be organized to pro-
vide the model with minimum data needed to run the model at any given time for
impact assessment or prediction. These are primarily the data on driving forces
for the lagoon system such as wind, water-level variations, river discharge, etc.
( see Chapter 6). Some information on selected simulated variable or variables at
least at one location in the lagoon is also desirable to have a reference point for
current model simulations.