Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
5
Handling Model Uncertainty
Abstract
The preceding chapters have highlighted a number of ways in which a
reservoir model can go right or wrong.
Nothing, however, compares in magnitude with the mishandling of
uncertainty. An incorrect saturation model, for example, can easily give a
volumetric error of 10 % and perhaps even 50 %. A flawed geological
concept could be much worse. Mishandling of uncertainty, however, can
result in the whole modelling and simulation effort becoming worthless.
The cause of this is occasionally misuse of software, more commonly it
is due to the limitations of our datasets, but primarily it is our behaviour
and our design choices which are at fault.
Our aim is to place our models within a framework that can overcome
data limitations and personal bias and give us a useful way of quantifying
forecast uncertainty.
