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Fig. 18.3 Weather data for the Oder estuary region for the period 2000-2001 (6-hourly data based
on a weather model). The data serve as input for the three-dimensional flow and ecological Baltic
Sea model ERGOM. Dates with outstandingly high total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the
lagoon are indicated
well able to simulate the phosphorus concentrations in years like 1994, 1995, 1996
or 1998. However, the model fails to simulate the observed, extreme summer phos-
phorus concentrations above 15 mmol/m 3 . Our conclusion is that the model is well
able to simulate the mineralization of nutrients from organic material in the sediment
and in the water body under oxic conditions. But the model does not predict the fast
release of phosphorus from the sediment under anoxic conditions.
 
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