Modelling Coastline Change of the Darss-Zingst Peninsula with Sedsim - The Baltic Sea Basin - page 289

Fig. 14.5 Vertical movements of the earth's crust. Data source: Harff and Meyer ( 2007 ) . The
pattern results from data sets for relative sea level change corrected by the removal of a eustatic
factor
14.4.4 Sea Level Change
During the last century, the eustatic sea level in the Darss-Zingst region was ris-
ing with a magnitude of 1 mm/year (Hupfer et al. 2003 ) . According to IPCC
projections the speed will increase; for the next 100 years a rise of more then
200 mm is supposed (Metz et al. 2007 ) . Therefore a simple linear extrapolation
of the value given by Hupfer et al. ( 2003 ) for the next millennium is not possible.
Vo ß e t a l . ( 1997 ) calculated with the global atmosphere-ocean circulation model
ECHAM/LSG (Roeckner et al. 1996 ) a long-term time series of sea level develop-
ment for the next 840 years, based on IPCC scenario A (Houghton et al. 1990 ) . This
scenario assumes an increase of the atmospheric CO 2 -concentration up to a spe-
cific limit with interconnected global warming effects. After reaching the limit, the
concentration is considered to stay constant. Sea level change models are available
for a CO 2 doubling during the first 60 model years, respectively, a CO 2 quadrupling
within the first 120 model years. Unfortunately, the LSG model scales only on a very