Geoscience Reference
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For the reconstruction of the geological history of coastline development relative sea
level curves combining the signal of eustatic sea level change and vertical crustal
displacement have to be determined for sites surrounding the basin. The palaeogeo-
graphic scenarios are generated by spatial interpolation of synchronous rsl values.
As future projection, scenarios of extreme (catastrophic) sea level events become
crucial in sustainable management of the coastal zone. For the projection of maxi-
mum sea level events secular trends as vertical crustal movements and eustatic sea
level change have to be superimposed with empirical extreme historical sea level
data. Here, the separation of the eustatic and tectonic component in relative sea level
change data plays an important role. We propose to use sea level change data from
neotectonically stable areas for an estimation of the eustatic change. As an example,
future scenarios for a time span of 100 years have been elaborated for the south-
ern Baltic Sea. Predictions for vertical displacement of the earth's crust are derived
from gauge measurements along the coastline. The projection of the eustatic rise
was provided by climate model runs based on an IPCC scenario of CO 2 emission.
The combination of these data sets with gauge measurements of the extreme
flood in November 1872 provides a predictive digital elevation model for the coasts
along the western Baltic Sea. As “defence level” the data can be used for long-term
planning of coastal protection constructions as dykes. The models developed can
be deployed for the generation of coastal scenarios outside the Baltic Sea. As a
prerequisite for an application in coastal zone management the procedure has to be
completed by modelling of sediment transport and deposition on timescales from
decades to millennia. An elaboration of appropriate methods requires the faithful
cooperation between geologists, physical oceanographers, and coastal engineers.
Acknowledgement The research has been conducted within the frame of the project SINCOS
( www.sincos.org ) funded by the German Research Foundation. The authors express thanks for the
support.
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