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Fig. 7.10 Extreme sea level scenario for 2100 AD for the Wismar Bight, western Baltic Sea,
combining secular trends in neotectonic displacements (vertical crustal movement), climatically
controlled sea level rise based on IPCC scenario, and gauge reconstruction for the coastal flood in
November 1872. Red colour marks areas of potential coastal hazards. The scenario is generated
under the theoretical assumption that no coastal protection activities will take place
stress of eroding waves and currents. In order to save the environment of the lagoon
and settlements along its coast, this area deserves special effort of protection as
beach re-nourishment, erection of dykes, and the installation of groyne fields.
7.7 Conclusion
The Baltic Sea Basin serves as a natural laboratory for the investigation of regional
coastline change. For the Holocene, transgression and regression of the sea can be
studied at the same time here. The northern Baltic has been uplifted by more than
100 m over the last thousands of years. On the contrary, in the southern Baltic the sea
level rise and isostatic subsidence cause a permanent transgression of the sea there.
In addition to the continuously rising sea level, storm surges result in catastrophic
events of coastal erosion. We have developed a transgression/regression model that
allows the
- reconstruction of the palaeogeographic development of the Baltic area since the
Littorina transgression onset (8000 years BP),
- elaboration of future scenarios of coastline change on the decadal to century scale
with special focus on hazard events as storm floods.
 
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