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not the political will to implement them is present. The
rst is that, whilst
the appetite for change may now be lacking, further evidence of global
deterioration in the condition of ecosystems and its consequences may
open windows of opportunity during which changes to the status quo
would be possible. 16 It is important that templates for change should be
available in the event that it is seen as politically important to take active
steps for reducing stresses on the natural world.
The second is that, without a vision of how change could be effected,
possibilities for a shift in society
s course might be dismissed by decision-
makers as unfeasible. Ecological sustainability may appear so far removed
from present realities that even minor steps towards it would be dismissed
as impossible. However, it may be the case, as Dreborg suggests, that
'
our
perceptions of what is possible or reasonable may be a major obstacle
to real change
'
. 17 Dreborg argues that the planning technique of back-
casting (see Section 3.3.4 ) can be used to show policy-forming authorities
that the strengthening or weakening of unsustainable trends that appear
from forecasting studies to be
'
is, in fact, a matter of policy
choice. 18 In the same way, the availability of credible proposals for
decision-making in the face of uncertainty, for protecting ecosystems,
and for reforming institutional practices would at least help decision-
makers with recognising that, although the changes involved would be
challenging, they are not impracticable.
'
laws of nature
'
3.2 Decision-making in the face of uncertainty
Situations in which we do not know what environmental impacts an
action may have are frequently referred to as involving uncertainty.
However, this catch-all term covers a variety of circumstances in which
information about causal effects is unavailable and that have varying
rami
cations for the conduct of decision-making. Some commentators
have argued that the different degrees of uncertainty should be catego-
rised. 19 Their contention is that having an appreciation of how far
removed we are from knowledge of the possible consequences that an
16 M. Averill,
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Introduction: Resilience, Law, and Natural Resource Management
'
(2008) 87
'
in E. Fisher, J. Jones and R. von Schomberg (eds) Implementing the Precautionary Principle:
Perspectives and Prospects (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2006), p. 104.
17 K. H. Dreborg,
Nebraska Law Review,831
-
2; S. Dovers,
'
Precautionary policy assessment for sustainability
18
'
Essence of Backcasting
'
(1996) 28 Futures,816.
Ibid ., 822.
19 B. Wynne,
Uncertainty and Environmental Learning: Reconceiving Science and Policy in the
Preventative Paradigm
'
'
(1992) 2 Global Environmental Change,111;P.Harremoësetal.,
 
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