Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
may be possible to develop a deeper understanding of ecosystem dynamics
through learning from experience, and to use knowledge secured to modify
policies and decisions where it is apparent from new data that this is
necessary. As understanding of ecosystem dynamics improves, con
dence
may also increase in pre-decision prediction of impacts whilst recognising
that whatever advances in knowledge are made, the nature of ecosystems
requires that on-going monitoring and assessment should be permanent
features of a legal system for their protection. Karkkainen captures the
aspirations of adaptive management for restoring con
dence in prediction
in advising that whilst attempts to protect ecosystems will always operate
with incomplete knowledge, we can
put ourselves on a trajectory to see
continuous improvements in our understanding of the complex dynamics
of the ecosystem
'
'
by making necessary investments in science and monitor-
ing capacity.
5
An ability to adapt would certainly be a necessary feature of ecological
governance, but it is by no means suf
cient for the protection of ecosys-
tems. Proposals for adaptive management replicate the error of current
environmental regulation to an extent in placing con
dence in the utility
of scienti
c research for identifying why particular effects have occurred.
Whilst the long-term study of ecosystems may improve our ability to
explain their behaviour, there is no reason for assuming that we will be
any the wiser about the causes of their decline and failure after the event
than beforehand. The adaptive approach also assumes that socioeco-
nomic systems will be able to adjust quickly to new information about
environmental harm, but that is unlikely to be possible for societies
whose whole way of living has become locked in to the practices that
are causing harm (as is the case with fossil fuel dependence).
6
In addi-
tion, the analysis of projects involving signi
cant capital expenditure
and construction must, for obvious reasons, precede rather than follow
their authorisation. In view of this, the principal focus of the approaches
I suggest for acquiring information is on providing support for the
qualitative mechanisms for precautionary decision-making that were
proposed in
Chapters 3
and
5
, and on improving our general knowledge
and understanding of ecosystems in the hope that the ef
cacy of eco-
logical regulation will be enhanced. Whilst a capacity to adjust is desir-
able,itisbygettingitrightinthe
rst place that progressive reductions in
ecological stresses are most likely to be achieved.
5
Karkkainen,
6
Chapter 2,
Section 2.3.2.2
.
'
Collaborative Ecosystem Governance
'
, 199.
