Mass Movement Processes Under Changing Climatic and Socioeconomic Conditions - Sustainable Development in Mountain Regions: Southeastern Europe - page 28

Fig. 3.7 Example of an area-wide assessment of susceptibility (hazard index map) as a basis for
land use planning (Schwarz and Tilch, 2008 )
not affirmed, autocorrelations are the consequence. Due to this fact, new approaches
have to be found in this manner, because frequency and magnitude are the key points
for the evaluation of current vulnerability as well as for the prognosis and evidence
of changes!
3.6 Conclusions
Climate change is a reality; the direct effects concerning an increase or decrease of
natural hazards especially on landslides and debris flow are doubtful. The strategy to
deal with this situation is to be prepared for different scenarios of assumed further
climatic development and its supposed impacts. This can be achieved on the one
hand by designing scenarios including analysis and evaluations of their impacts and
on the other hand by adapting monitoring of the ongoing developments.
It is evident that the impacts of changes are closely related to societies and
economic development. Therefore, the needed basic data sets (e.g. event documen-
tation) and existing hazard assessment tools should be adapted and improved to risk
assessment tools. The everlasting conflict between decreasing quality and availabil-
ity of data by increasing expanse can be met by applying a “Top Down Strategy”
with different scales (levels of accuracy), ranging from pan-European summary
maps and regional land use planning to detailed planning of preventive measures.
Considering the effects of climate change on hazards means that existing hazard
maps get incorrect with the time. This problem is not new and not only arising in
terms of climate change but also with socioeconomic development such as land use,