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tropical and sub-tropical areas will decrease as irrigation water
will become limiting because of additional stress on crops already
affected by higher temperatures (Beran and Arnell, 1989). A sub-
stantial increase in cost and management of irrigation water is
likely to occur in these areas. A northern migration of agriculture
would increase irrigation and fertiliser in sandy soils, which may
create worse groundwater problems (Wittwer and Robb, 1964).
Such a situation is most likely in Punjab and surrounding areas
(Chakravarty and Mallick, 2003). In areas where the amount or
intensity of rainfall will increase, management would be oriented
in a way to prevent soil erosion. Moreover, increases in fertiliser
use may be required in such areas. Thus, the agricultural produc-
tivity impacts in most developing countries of Central and South
America, Africa, South-East Asia and the Pacific Islands will be
minimal through a combination of agricultural zones and adjust-
ments in agricultural technology and management (Parry et al.,
1990; Wittwer, 1990).
1.6 Abatement/mitigation
With continuous population growth and improving incomes,
but with no increase in arable land, the primary objective of
agriculture is to satisfy production demand of 50-80% above
today's level through sustained productivity improvement by
2050 (Anonymous, 2003, 2006d, 2009b; Müller, 2009). This
will require optimising agricultural productivity using tech-
niques that minimise unwanted impacts such as GHG emis-
sions, eutrophication and acidification. Agricultural systems
are dynamic and managed ecosystems, critical to the human
response regarding production and food supply in the era of
climate change. This is because producers and consumers
are continuously responding to changes in crop and livestock
yields, food prices, input prices, resource availability and
technological changes. A fundamental question with regard
to climate change is whether agriculture can adapt quickly
and autonomously or will the response be slow and depen-
dent on structural policies and programmes? Accounting for
these adaptations and adjustments is difficult but necessary in
order to measure climate change impacts accurately. Failure to
account for human adaptations, either in the form of short-term
changes in consumption and production practices or long-term
technological changes, will overestimate the potential damage
from climate change and underestimate its potential benefits
(Adams et al., 1998).
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