Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway - Climate Change Effect on Crop Productivity - page 492

Average Annual GDD

Estimated
yield
(model
derived)

Predicted %
change in
yield from
RegClim

Average
yield
(observed)

RegClim
%
change

Predicted
change in
yield

1980-2000
value a

Estimated
coeficient

County Period Crop

P1 Barley 327 283 1437 0.18

P2 Barley 367 345 1437 0.18 0.3 67 19%

P3 Barley 371 369 1437 0.18

Hordaland All Potato 1956 1822 1243 0.21

P1 Barley 267 391 1243 0.21 0.2 45 12%

P1 Oats 269 199 1243 0.21

Sogn & Fjordane All Potato 2100 2491 1213 0.30 1.0 381 15%

P1 Barley 268 441 1213 0.30 0.2 89 20%

Møre & Romsdal All Potato 2142 2414 1174 0.24 1.6 454 19%

Sør-Trøndelag All Barley 278 421 1143 0.23 0.1 39 9%

All Oats 284 439 1143 0.23 0.2 42 10%

All Potato 2087 2658 1143 0.23 1.6 431 16%

Nord-Trøndelag All Barley 275 431 1212 0.23 0.1 35 8%

All Potato 2435 1115 1212 0.23

P1 Oats 249 387 1212 0.23

P3 Wheat 339 316 1212 0.23

Nordland All Barley 203 393 934 0.36 0.2 80 20%

All Oats 206 389 934 0.36 0.2 78 20%

All Potato 1602 2165 934 0.36 2.1 689 32%

Troms All Potato 1492 1987 724 0.39 2.3 647 33%

Finnmark All Potato 1375 2285 695 0.43 2.7 800 35%

Note: Table based on model estimates, changes in GDD and precipitation under the RegClim scenario and yield predictions for 2040.
a

Average temperature calculation based on available data: Hedmark: 1980-1999; Oppland: 1980-1999; Telemark: 1980-1989.