Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Abstract
Climate change is likely to affect agricultural productiv-
ity. In this study, a biophysical statistical model is used to
analyse the relationship between yields of potatoes, bar-
ley, oats and wheat per decare, and temperature (growing
degree days) and precipitation, for the period 1958-2001
at the county level in Norway. If a climate signal can be
detected at the county level, this should be of interest
for climate policy planners, agricultural authorities and
farmers preparing for a warmer climate. We find that in
18% of (the crop and county) cases, there is a positive
impact on yield from increased temperature. In the case
of crops, the effect is strongest for potatoes. Regionally,
the correlations are strongest in Northern Norway, where
temperature is likely to be more important as a limiting
factor for crop growth than other regions of the country.
The effect of increased precipitation is negative in 20% of
the cases, which could be due to excess soil moisture or
reduced sun radiation associated with more cloud cover.
Predictions based on the RegClim scenario for 2040 indi-
cate that potato yields will increase by around 30% in
Northern Norway.
19.1
Introduction
Climate change may have significant impacts on society and
ecosystems over the next decades. Since a substantial part
of expected climate change is likely to be man-made, we are
faced with a challenge to decide on emission mitigation poli-
cies at international, national and local level [6]. Furthermore,
adaptation policies have the potential to lower the overall costs
associated with climate change. Given the large number of
uncertainties in future emissions, climate system responses and
potential impacts, policy design must be based on best available
knowledge, and regularly updated when new results become
available. For a number of years, impacts research has been
hindered by a lack of climate change scenarios with resolution
high enough to capture sub-national variations.
Such scenarios are now available from downscaled
results of global circulation models (GCMs). In this study,
we analyse the effects on agricultural productivity using a
regional climate change scenario for Norway for the period
