Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
table 1.3
Indirect impacts on agriculture
S. no.
Situational change
Impact on agriculture
1
Regulation involving greenhouse
gas emissions
Potential increased costs to meet new
regulations; opportunities to participate in
new carbon markets and increase profits
2
Litigation from damages due to
extreme events or management of
carbon markets
Legal costs may increase
3
New weed and pest species
migration
Control strategies will have to be developed;
increased pest management costs as well as
crop losses
4
Vigorous weed growth results in
increased herbicide use
Increase in resistance or reduction in time to
development of resistance; regulatory
compliance costs or litigation over off-site
damages from pesticides
5
Possibility of increased inter-annual
variability of weather patterns
Increased risk in crop rotation, genetic
selection and marketing decisions
6
Increased global demand for food
production due to climate and
demographic changes
New markets; increase in intensification of
production; increase in absentee ownership
7
Increased period for forage
production
Decreased need for large forage storage
across winter for livestock operations
longer planting windows and generally more favourable grow-
ing conditions under warming (Fischer et al., 2005). However,
technological developments could outweigh these effects,
resulting in combined wheat yield increases of 37-101% by the
2050s (Ewert et al., 2005).
A record crop yield loss of 36% occurred in Italy for corn
grown in the Po valley where extremely high temperatures pre-
vailed (Ciais et al., 2005). It is estimated that such summer
temperatures in Europe are now 50% more likely to occur as a
result of anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al., 2004). In
areas where temperatures are already close to the physiologi-
cal maxima for crops such as seasonally arid and tropical
regions, higher temperatures may be more immediately det-
rimental, increasing the heat stress on crops and water loss by
evaporation (Gornall et al., 2010). A 2°C local warming in the
mid latitudes could increase wheat production by nearly 10%,
whereas at low latitudes the same amount of warming may
decrease yields by nearly the same amount. Different crops
show different sensitivities to warming. It is important to note
the large uncertainties in crop yield changes for a given level
of warming.
