Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
table 15.5
Indian food production and projection scenario
Projection (million tonnes)
Product 2000 2010 2020
Rice 85.4 103.6 122.1
Wheat 71.0 85.8 102.8
Coarse grains 29.9 34.9 40.9
Total cereals 184.7 224.3 265.8
Pulses 16.1 21.4 27.8
Food grains 200.8 245.7 293.6
Fruits 41.1 56.3 77.0
Vegetables 84.5 112.7 149.7
Milk 75.3 103.7 142.7
Meat and eggs 3.7 5.4 7.8
Marine products 507 8.2 11.8
Source:
Aggarwal, P. K. et al., 2004.
Environ. Sci. Policy
, 7(6):
487-498.
India's vulnerability to climate change is widely recognised.
It lies in 4n area characterised by seasonal weather patterns, and
experiences land degradation, rapid economic development and
an increasing population. Since over 70% of India's population
relies on agriculture for their livelihood and sustenance, most
of the research focus has been on how India's agriculture might
be affected by climate change. However, the concentration of
research on climate change impacts fails to recognise that there
are other complex global processes at work, such as globalisa-
tion, which may influence or exacerbate the situation. In the last
decade there have been significant changes in India's economy
as it moves towards liberalisation. Table 15.5 shows the Indian
food production and projection scenarios up to 2020 (Aggrawal
et al., 2002).
Agriculture and allied activities constitute the single larg-
est component of India's economy, contributing nearly 27%
of the total gross domestic product in the year 1999-2000.
Agriculture exports account for 13-18% of the total annual
exports of the country. However, given that 62% of the cropped
area is still dependent on rainfall, Indian agriculture continues
to be fundamentally dependent on weather. A few studies on the
impact on agriculture have been reported for India in the IPCC
Third Assessment Report. While there is report of a decrease
in rice yields by 3-15% under a scenario of 1.5°C rise in tem-
perature and a 2 mm/day increase in precipitation exist, some
other reports reflect that yields of soya bean in India would vary
