Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Agriculture plays a key role in the overall economic and
social well-being of India. For any particular crop, the effect
of increased temperature will depend on the crop's optimal
temperature for growth and reproduction (USGCRP, 2009).
The components of the natural ecosystem are very sensitive
to changes in weather and climate, particularly to extreme
weather events, decreased soil moisture, temperature change
and increased CO
2
in the atmosphere. They will also affect the
ground water replenishment patterns and evapo-transpiration
rates (Allen et al., 1994). So, vegetation as well as agriculture
is likely to be affected from such changes in weather and atmo-
sphere. The impact on agriculture could be of two major types.
First, by altering production adversely in the main food-produc-
ing areas, climate change could enhance food scarcities. The
location of main food-producing regions could change. Second,
there could be a profound impact on physiological mechanisms
regulating plant and animal productivity. The greatest impact is
likely to come from changes in the precipitation pattern. Attri
and Rathore (2003) suggested the adaptation strategies for sus-
tainable production of wheat and ensuring food security.
15.4
A crop yield response to climate change:
Global perspective
Global estimates of climate impacts on agriculture have been
fairly rough to date due to lack of consistent methodology and
uncertainty about the physiological effects of CO
2
. How cli-
mate change might affect agriculture was studied by Liverman
(1987) and Warrick (1988). Kane et al. (1989) broadly predicted
improvements in agricultural production at high latitudes and
reductions in Northern Hemisphere mid-continental agricul-
tural regions. The IPCC (1990) concluded that while future
food production should be maintained, negative impacts were
likely in some regions, particularly where present-day vulner-
ability is high. An international project was created by the US
Environmental Protection Agency, 'Implications of Climate
Change for International Agriculture: Global Food Trade and
Vulnerable Regions', to estimate the potential effects of green-
house gas-induced climate change on global food trade, focus-
ing on the distribution and quantity of production of the major
food crops for a consistent set of climate change scenarios and
CO
2
physiological effects. Other goals of the project were to
determine how currently vulnerable, food-deficit regions may
be affected by global climate change, to identify the future
