Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
•
The difference in yield is influenced by baseline climate.
In sub-tropical environments, the decrease in potential
wheat yields ranged from 1.5% to 5.8%, while in tropical
areas, the decrease was relatively higher, suggesting that
warmer regions can expect greater crop losses.
Rice production
•
Overall, temperature increases are predicted to reduce
rice yields. An increase of 2-4°C is predicted to result in
a reduction in yields.
•
Eastern regions are predicted to be impacted the most by
increased temperatures and decreased radiation, resulting
in relatively fewer grains and shorter grain filling durations.
•
By contrast, potential reductions in yield due to increased
temperatures in northern India are predicted to be offset by
higher radiation, lessening the impacts of climate change.
•
Although additional CO
2
can benefit crops, this effect
was nullified by an increase of temperature.
policy
implications of
climate change
The policy implications for climate change impacts in agricul-
ture are multi-disciplinary, and include possible adaptations to
•
Food security policy: To account for changing crop yields
(increasing in some areas and decreasing in others) as
well as shifting boundaries for crops, and the impact that
this can have on food supply.
•
Trade policy: Changes in certain crops can affect imports/
exports depending on the crop (this is particularly rel-
evant for cash crops such as chillies).
•
Livelihoods: With agriculture contributing significantly
to GNP, it is critical that policy addresses issues of loss of
livelihood with changes in crops, as well as the need to
shift some regions to new crops, and the associated skills
training required.
•
Water policy: Impacts vary significantly according to
whether crops are rain-fed or irrigated, so the water
policy would need to consider the implications for water
demand of agricultural change due to climate change.
•
Adaptive measures: Policy makers will also need to con-
sider adaptive measures to cope with changing agricul-
tural patterns. Measures may include the introduction of
alternative crops, changes to cropping patterns and pro-
motion of water conservation and irrigation techniques.
Need for
further
research
Owing to the complex interaction of climate impacts, com-
bined with varying irrigation techniques, regional factors, and
