Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
large-scale droughts or floods in the summer monsoon season.
The total frequency of cyclonic storms that form over the Bay of
Bengal has remained almost constant over the period 1887-1997.
There is evidence that glaciers in the Himalayas are receding at
a rapid pace.
Future
projections
It is projected that by the end of the twenty-first century, rain-
fall will increase by 15-31%, and the mean annual temperature
will increase by 3-6°C. The warming is more pronounced over
land areas, with the maximum increase over northern India.
The warming is also projected to be relatively greater in winter
and post-monsoon seasons.
•
Although an increase in carbon dioxide is likely to be
beneficial to several crops, the associated increase in
temperatures and increased variability of rainfall would
considerably impact food production.
•
There are a few Indian studies on this theme and they
generally confirm a similar trend of agricultural decline
with climate change. Recent studies done at the Indian
Agricultural Research Institute indicate the possibility
of a loss of 4-5 million tonnes in wheat production in
the future with every 1°C rise in temperature throughout
the growing period (but no adaptation benefits). It also
assumes that irrigation would remain available in the
future at today's levels. Losses for other crops are still
uncertain, but they are expected to be relatively smaller,
especially for
kharif
crops.
•
It is, however, possible for farmers and other stakeholders
to adapt to a limited extent and reduce the losses (possible
adaptation options are described later in this document).
Simple adaptations such as a change in planting dates
and crop varieties could help in reducing the impacts of
climate change to some extent. For example, the Indian
Agricultural Research Institute study, as quoted above,
indicates that losses in wheat production in future can be
reduced from 4-5 million tonnes to 1-2 million tonnes
if a large percentage of farmers could change to timely
planting and to better-adapted varieties. This change of
planting would, however, need to be examined from a
cropping systems perspective.
•
Increasing climatic variability associated with global
warming will, nevertheless, result in considerable sea-
sonal/annual fluctuations in food production. Even
today, all agricultural commodities are sensitive to such
