Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
year over 1961-2003. This rate was faster over 1993-2003,
about 3.1 mm per year.
Future
projections
The projected temperature increase by the end of this century is
likely to be in the range 2-4.5°C with a best estimate of about
3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values sub-
stantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded. It is likely that
future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and heavier precipitation. For the next two
decades, a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected.
Even if all future emissions were stopped now, a further warm-
ing of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Himalayan
glaciers and snow cover are projected to contract. It is very
likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation
events will continue to become more frequent. Increases in the
amount of precipitation are very likely in high latitudes, while
decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions, continuing
observed patterns in recent trends. The projected sea level rise
by the end of this century is likely to be 0.18-0.59 m. Average
global surface ocean pH is projected to reduce between 0.14
and 0.35 units over the twenty-first century.
10.4 Indian scenario of climate change
Current
scenario
Analyses done by the Indian Meteorology Department and the
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (MS), gener-
ally show the same trends for temperature, heat waves, glaciers,
droughts and floods, and sea level rise as by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change of United Nations. The magnitude of
the change varies in some cases. At the national level, there is no
trend in monsoon rainfall during the last 100 years, but there are
some regional patterns. Areas of an increasing trend in monsoon
rainfall are found along the west coast, North Andhra Pradesh
and North-West India, and those of a decreasing trend over East
Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas, North-East India and parts
of Gujarat and Kerala (−6% to −8% of normal over 100 years).
Surface air temperature for the period 1901-2000 indicates a sig-
nificant warming of 0.4°C for 100 years. The spatial distribution
of temperature changes indicated that a significant warming trend
has been observed along the west coast, Central India and the
interior peninsula and over North-East India. However, a cool-
ing trend has been observed in the North-West and some parts
in southern India. Instrumental records over the past 130 years
do not show any significant long-term trend in the frequencies of
Search WWH ::




Custom Search