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are already in short supply and are consequently high-priced.
Nearly 80 million hectares, out of the country's net sown area
of around 143 million hectares, lack irrigation facilities and,
hence, rely wholly on rain water for crop growth. Over 85% of
the pulses and coarse cereals, more than 75% of the oilseeds and
nearly 65% of cotton are produced from such lands. The crop
yields are quite low. The available records indicated that the
predominantly rain-fed tracts experience three to four droughts
every 10 years. Of these, two to three droughts are generally of
moderate intensity and one is severe. Most of the rain-fed lands,
moreover, are in arid and semi-arid zones where annual rainfall
is meagre and prolonged dry spells are quite usual even during
the monsoon season. This makes crop cultivation highly risk-
prone. If the quantum of rainfall in these areas drops further or
its pattern undergoes any distinct, albeit unforeseeable, change
in the coming years, which seems quite likely in view of climate
change, crop productivity may dwindle further, adding to the
woes of rain-fed farmers.
According to the Indian Council of Agricultural Research
(ICAR), medium-term climate change predictions have pro-
jected the likely reduction in crop yields due to a climate
change between 4.5% and 9% by 2039. The long-run predic-
tions paint a scarier picture with the crop yields anticipated
to fall by 25% or more by 2099. This will have a detrimental
effect on farmers' income and purchasing power, with obvious
down-the-line repercussions. Though the rainfall records avail-
able with the India Meteorological Department do not indicate
any perceptible trend of change in overall annual monsoon
rainfall in the country, noticeable changes have been observed
within certain distinct regions. At least three meteorological
sub-divisions—Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Kerala—have
shown significant decreases in seasonal rainfall though some
others have recorded an uptrend in precipitation as well. Since
rain-fed crops, such as coarse grains, pulses and oilseeds, are
grown mostly during the kharif season, these are impacted by
both low as well as excess rainfall. The groundnut crop in the
Rayalaseema area of Andhra Pradesh in 2008 can be a case in
point. It suffered substantial damage because of high as well
as low rainfall at different stages of crop growth. While heavy
rainfall early in the season adversely affected the development
of pegs (which bear groundnut pods below the soil), the rela-
tively drier spell at the later stage hit the development of pods.
This aside, climate change is also reflected in the increasingly
fluctuating weather cycle with unpredictable cold waves, heat
waves, floods and exceptionally heavy single-day downpours.
