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Anthropic contribution
Constrained model simulation
0.5
Ljungqvist
0.5
0
0
-0.5
1000
1500
2000
TSI c ontr ibution
-0.5
1000
1500
2000
0.5
0
Ouput error
-0.5
1000
1500
2000
0.5
Volcanic contribution
0
0.5
0
-0.5
-0.5
1000
1500
2000
1000
1500
2000
Figure 7.8. Hypothesis of zero anthropogenic contribution
Figure 7.9 shows the output errors with and without the constraint
±
1
and the ranges at
standard deviation.
S
=
0,
c
lim
Figure 7.9. Comparison of output errors (S clim = 0)
The increase in the output standard deviation is hardly perceptible (2%),
except around the year 2000. In effect, we are deprived of the degree of
freedom regarding the CO 2 input, which is active at precisely this point.
Nevertheless, the corresponding error is not excessive compared to the
output deviations over the past millennium. In other words, the hypothesis
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